Unpleasant Memories Create Worries
Presently worries about post 2014 Afghanistan is widely common across the country. Most afghan citizens are concerned that what will happen after the 2014 when US led NATO forces repatriation period is set to be completed? Dose Afghanistan return to the dark days of civil war? What would the rival neighbors in links with their puppets in Afghanistan, do with the country? Are the afghan security forces that much strong to guarantee the continuation of the state? These are mainly the questions which rise in minds. In the following paragraphs with a historical approach, the main factors that cause worries are going to be addressed.
Afghanistan in 1979 was invaded by Soviet Union, a communist “cold war” rival to the west. Expansion of communism ideology and soviet access to the warm waters are mostly underlined as main purpose of the invasion. Afghans couldn’t tolerate being occupied by a non-Muslim power .the idea of occupation motivated Afghans, people from all walks of live joined to start jihad “holy war” against the invaders army across the country. The west, particularly United States along with some Muslim states escalated the battle; the “west” in coordination with regional intelligent service networks, provided different types of assistances to mujahidin “holy war fighters”. The assistances included; financial supports, logistics, provision of military equipments, paramilitary training and needful intelligence, technical and strategic advice. So the holy war expanded and lasted with tremendous costs and loss of lives as soviet strategists hadn’t taught it. Therefore in 1989 the red army left Afghanistan with installing a puppet communist regime in Kabul. It was the begging of a greater failure to the communism across the world. Not very long, due to lack of support from Soviet Union, the communist inclined establishment in Kabul was toppled by mujahidin with the west’s supports. It put in the place a power vacuum.
The west secured its goal, “failure of communism” then forgot Afghanistan. Now it was the time for mujahidin. For the first time, Mujahidin with Islamic ideology tended to control power. But they couldn’t. They lacked political vision. They lacked knowledge and experience in social and ethnic conflicts management. They failed to compromise on some religious points as well as ethnic groups rights. Thus they failed to establish a government including all ethnics and religious sects. It turned the country into a destructive civil war. It affected the whole country on multiple aspects; almost, all economical infrastructures and political structures were destroyed. Agricultural products reduced. Many people spent day-to-day life with no work. All were thinking how to win rivals in the war. A Horrible number of citizens including women and children died. Many got injured. Many lost husband and wives. And many lost parents. Millions left the homeland, got refuge abroad. There was nothing about education .it was as it is said, “human is the wolf of each others.” The dominant circumstance was quietly disappointing: nonsense was tangible everywhere. The status qua got absolutely unbearable. Uncertainty, mistrust, and insecurity were the dominant horror anywhere. At the time, where disappointment and failure of mujahidin were widely approved, another group “Taliban” apparently Islamic and tribal emerged. They called, “Islam and security.”
Taliban, an ethnic group with fundamental ideas, under the slogan “sharia and security” dominated the south. It secured control over Kabul in 1996. In the capital Kabul they faced tough resistance. Taliban knew very less about politics. Most of Taliban members understood some very primary religious teachings about Islam. They strongly lacked experience in politics. They had their own idea of politics and type of government. They had very strict views regarding human rights. Women were banned at home. Other ethnic groups were deprived from all basic rights. At this period all girl schools were closed. They applied some very tribal policies during their dominance over the country, regarding other ethnic groups. They repeatedly committed genocides particularly in the north, Bameyan province and in Kabul. Hundreds of thousands fled Afghanistan abroad. It was a very choking period; imprisonment, execution, cutting part of body and scourging was usual everywhere by Taliban members.
Thus, the above circumstances belong to the past. We never wish to have them again. But they constitute every single Afghans’ historic memory during decades of uncertainty and disputes. These memories disturb every vigilant afghan.
Now, more than a decade international military and civilian aid in Afghanistan seems to be failed in the struggle against insurgency and also in effort for state building. Notorious corruption in afghan government institutions is still a common thing; despite counter corruption struggles by the afghan government and its international allies, yet it isn’t reduced. It has resulted in hopelessness among citizens all over the country. The insurgency hasn’t been reduced yet. The threat from Taliban is not yet defused rather day by day it gets stronger. Still security is an important issue across the country. The call for peace and negotiation is rejected repeatedly by Taliban. It has created a widespread disappointment among ordinary people. Taliban men still persist on their severe ideas; they believe in their own type of governance and refuse human rights. They pursue their own sect on the basis of their own interpretation from Islamic teachings which are very strict views.
Economically, it is also disappointing; due to security reasons based on uncertainty regarding post 2014th Afghanistan situations, some investors have already transferred their capitals abroad. And some intend to transfer. International aid is gradually getting reduced. National investors seem reluctant to invest in private sectors. So the work market has already degraded. Therefore it looks that widely Unemployment is a common outcome.
Social cleavages during years of disputes are activated. In comparison with any other regional multinational states, Afghanistan owns a very pluralistic population without common values and visions. So activation of Religious issues and ethnical disputes at the absence of a strong government with legitimacy based on democratic participation, are surely predictable, especially in links with abroad.
Coming to the point; In terms of economy businesses get down. Jobs are going to be lost. Insurgency poses greater. Opium trade is the same as before, still it involves officials in the government. Social disputes at the absence of an appropriate administration look predictable. It seems that on the government part there are no tangible actions regarding the voices based on concerns from people except some speeches and news conferences by officials. Watching these circumstances, memories come to one who is vigilant about future. It reminds some, the dark days of post Soviet Union’s withdrawal Afghanistan. Therefore Concerns regarding matters of post 2014Afghanistan, seem to be real and justifiable. Worries are the natural and logical results of an evaluation from the ongoing situation in Afghanistan.
Yasin Sultani is a permanent writer of the Afghanistan Express Daily.